On the founder effect in COVID-19 outbreaks: how many infected travelers may have started them all?

	On the founder effect in COVID-19 outbreaks: how many infected travelers may have started them all?
	Ruan, YS; Luo, ZD; Tang, XL; Li, GH; Wen, HJ; He, XL; Lu, XM; Lu, J; Wu, CI
	2021
发表期刊	NATIONAL SCIENCE REVIEW
ISSN	2095-5138
卷号	8 期号:1
摘要	How many incoming travelers (I-0 at time 0, equivalent to the 'founders' in evolutionary genetics) infected with SARS-CoV-2 who visit or return to a region could have started the epidemic of that region? I-0 would be informative about the initiation and progression of epidemics. To obtain I-0, we analyze the genetic divergence among viral populations of different regions. By applying the 'individual-output' model of genetic drift to the SARS-CoV-2 diversities, we obtain I-0 < 10, which could have been achieved by one infected traveler in a long-distance flight. The conclusion is robust regardless of the source population, the continuation of inputs (I-t for t > 0) or the fitness of the variants. With such a tiny trickle of human movement igniting many outbreaks, the crucial stage of repressing an epidemic in any region should, therefore, be the very first sign of local contagion when positive cases first become identifiable. The implications of the highly 'portable' epidemics, including their early evolution prior to any outbreak, are explored in the companion study (Ruan et al., personal communication).
收录类别	sci
语种	英语
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.kiz.ac.cn/handle/152453/13139
专题	科研部门_适应性进化与进化医学（吕雪梅）昆明动物研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ruan, YS,Luo, ZD,Tang, XL,et al. On the founder effect in COVID-19 outbreaks: how many infected travelers may have started them all?[J]. NATIONAL SCIENCE REVIEW,2021,8(1).
APA	Ruan, YS.,Luo, ZD.,Tang, XL.,Li, GH.,Wen, HJ.,...&Wu, CI.(2021).On the founder effect in COVID-19 outbreaks: how many infected travelers may have started them all?.NATIONAL SCIENCE REVIEW,8(1).
MLA	Ruan, YS,et al."On the founder effect in COVID-19 outbreaks: how many infected travelers may have started them all?".NATIONAL SCIENCE REVIEW 8.1(2021).

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